By Kenalemang Phukuntse
Nelson Mandela Bay (the Bay/the Metro) is a convergence point for an array of biomes, weather systems, river courses and ecological characteristics and peoples, that has created a unique and globally significant biodiversity hot spot.
Preserving these qualities will be essential in adapting to the changes which human activity has driven in the climate and planetary ecosystems, and to secure the diverse heritage of the human, terrestrial and marine environment of the Bay.
The Bay’s expected climatic changes include hotter temperatures, less rainfall, sea-level rise and tidal surges, more wind, and more frequent extreme weather events. These will lead to increased flooding, longer droughts, and increased likelihood of heat-related illnesses.
Indeed, local authorities have a major influence on climate change adaptation, yet their actions are strongly determined by the national fiscal, regulatory and policy contexts in which they are embedded.
It is within this context that the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) has sought to partner with key stakeholders to create a Climate Resilient Development Strategy Framework (CRDSF) and a climate-smart Nelson Mandela Bay.
Transitions arising from climate change
Our initial research suggests that the following transitions will be key for the Metro to manage, namely:
– the transition from variable weather patterns (“four seasons in one day”) to highly variable weather and regular extreme events
– from carbon ignorant/agnostic market access for manufactured goods, to the key markets instituting carbon controls and measures that penalise products with non-renewable generation content. Examples include the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the US’s Prove It Act.
– from electrical energy supplied via Eskom’s centralised and fossil-fuel driven generation systems, to localised and decentralised electrical supply generated via renewable sources
– from the vehicles powered by internal combustion engines and a transport system built off that power drive, to new energy vehicles (electric and hydrogen/ammonia) and alternative transport systems
– moving from an urban infrastructure and basic service delivery system that privileges a few to a service delivery system that delivers a basic service level for all. A point emphasised at the June stakeholder meeting.
Resilience pathways for Nelson Mandela Bay
Informed by the Metro’s complex socio-cultural-ecological ecosystem, the following components will be explored to develop resilience pathway.
– People: the new economy will require new skill sets. Climate change will threaten mental and physical well-being, housing and infrastructure which will need to be redesigned to accommodate new needs and more. Food security and access to basic services and education are critical to build community’s resilience to climate change.
– Low carbon (green) and diverse economies: given the importance of manufacturing to the Metro’s economic base, this pathway will need to address the challenges faced by the automotive sector, the key market “carbon taxes,” electricity supply via renewable sources, and secure the opportunities of keystone projects.
– Green lungs: Nelson Mandela Bay has extensive open space and green areas that need to be professionally managed for biodiversity persistence and function, and to provide ecosystem services. Examples include clean air, flood attenuation, groundwater recharge, and spiritual and cultural appreciation and enjoyment.
– Blue lungs: in recognition of the key roles Algoa Bay and the “Wild Side” (southern seaboard) play in the Metro, both the marine ecosystem and maritime industry show opportunity for building resilience.
– Golden beaches: the Metro’s 102km coastline is the place most residents interface with nature and it also provides significant tourism potential. With more than 25 public beaches included within four broad “zones”, the management of these natural assets to secure natural ecosystem resources, promote tourism, and offer recreational space for residents is a key pathway.
– Purple infrastructure: given both the “services for all” focus and that infrastructure is a key adaptation/defence mechanism against climate impacts, the public transport, stormwater, water and sanitation, electricity, roads, waste, health, and recreation infrastructure is essential in building metro-wide resilience.
It is clear that change has and is coming to the Bay. Humanity’s unfettered use of carbon on a global scale is not only driving change in weather patterns and natural ecosystems, but will also fundamentally alter the economy and livelihoods of those who call the Metro home.
Councillor Kenalemang Rose Phukuntsi is Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) Commissioner representing South African Local Government Association and is current mayor of Tswelopele Local Municipality.
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