New York - Commodities are nearing bull-market territory after rebounding from the lowest level in at least 25 years as oil prices rallied, complementing advances in recent weeks in soybeans and zinc.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks returns from 22 raw materials, climbed 0.6 percent to 87.24 by 3.32pm in Singapore on Friday. The gauge bottomed at a closing low of 72.88 in January, and a finish above 87.45 would mark a 20 percent advance, meeting the common definition of a bull market. The measure is still about 50 percent below the high reached in 2011.
Commodities suffered five straight years of declines through 2015 as China slowed, denting raw-materials demand after producers ramped up supply on expectations the boom in Asia’s top economy would persist. Citigroup said last month commodities had turned the corner and Tom Albanese, former head of miner Rio Tinto Group and chief executive officer of Vedanta, said in April that markets were beyond the worst as China showed signs of recovery.
“The rebound in commodity prices this year has been consistent with the big picture of constrained supply, recovering demand and improving sentiment that we expect to lift prices further over the medium term,” Simona Gambarini, a commodities economist at Capital Economics in London, said by email.
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Brent crude has surged from a 12-year low in January amid disruptions from Nigeria to Venezuela, and as US output declined, pressured by OPEC’s policy of sustaining production. The global oil market has flipped to a deficit sooner than expected, Goldman Sachs Group said in May.
Prices of zinc used to rustproof steel in auto bodies and suspension bridges climbed above $2 000 a metric ton for the first time since July on Thursday after mine production cuts by Glencore and others. Goldman Sachs has dubbed zinc the “bullish exception” among metals in contrast to the bearish outlook for copper and aluminium.
Citigroup said in May that commodity prices were unlikely to return to lows seen in the first quarter and the bank increased forecasts for metals to grains amid the oil-led recovery. Soybeans consumed in cooking oil and livestock feed have jumped 34 percent this year to the highest since 2014 because of lower crops in South America and concerns dry weather will cut US output.
* With assistance from David Stringer
BLOOMBERG