DOMINIC MAPHAKA
South Africa is heading towards a national coalition government that will be triggered by the decline of support for the ruling party, and pro-poor policies championed by rival opposition political parties.
Amid the deteriorating state of governance coupled with the deep-seated triple challenges, of poverty, inequality, and unemployment, the issue of immigration has regained significance in the South African political landscape. The said issue is arguably a campaigning tool that will shape the voting patterns in the 2024 South African general elections.
The post-2007 period in South Africa saw the recurrence of xenophobic attacks in 2008 and 2015, allegedly sparked by competition over resources with South African black people claiming that their African counterparts were taking their jobs and depriving them from benefiting from the limited public services.
At that time, the attacks received widespread condemnation across all sectors of society including political parties with the African National Congress (ANC) being at the forefront of scathing those attacks.
The skyrocketing deep-seated challenges of inequality, poverty, and unemployment have raised reservations and questions about the ANC’s commitment to improving the standard of living of all South Africans.
In the face of the much-celebrated blueprint, the National Development Plan Vision 2030 adopted by the ANC in 2011, South Africa remains one of the most unequal societies on the globe with skyrocketing poverty and unemployment.
The foregoing developments have in recent times led to an increasing number of newly formed alternative political parties starting with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF in 2013), Patriotic Alliance (2013), Black First Land First (2015), the African Transformation Movement (2018) and ActionSA (2020) among others.
As the political contestation becomes more rigorous than ever, the issue of immigration draws attention to the policymaking process with parties such as the Patriotic Alliance and Action-SA vowing to curb illegal immigrants, and putting South Africans first should they be elected to govern the country.
Additionally, the recurring deep-seated challenges saw the rise of community-based movements such as Operation Dudula interacting with communities on the ground to address their daily problems such as crime, rape, and kidnapping among others, which are attributed to be caused by illegal African foreign nationals. EFF, the third largest party in South Africa, has adopted the Open Border Policy which is in direct contrast to the position of the Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA.
The latter organisations call for the tightening of South African borders and strong laws to curb the surge of illegal African immigrants. Within this context, the issue of immigrants has regained significance and is becoming a campaigning tool that is likely to influence the outcome of the 2024 South African General Elections. Arguably, the issue of immigrants will split the votes between the EFF, Action-SA, and Patriotic Alliance.
The 2021 Local Government Elections have witnessed the downward spiral of the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA), while the EFF’s support increased marginally, and the newly founded Action-SA managed to secure huge support.
Beyond the Local Government Elections, the ANC which enjoyed an outright majority in general elections has in recent times experienced a decline in support, and is set to go into a further downward spiral of below the 50%+ required to govern after the 2024 General Elections.
The election statistics from the Independent Electoral Commission show that the ANC support declined from 62.15% recorded in 2014 to 57.50% in 2019. It is worth mentioning that the DA’s declining support started during the 2019 general elections when the Freedom Front Plus gained support from voters who had previously supported the former party. The decline deepened further during the 2021 Local Government Elections as the newly formed Action-SA attracted supporters who defected from the DA.
Among other things that have drawn the heart and minds of the defected supporters, is the pro-poor black affirmative action policies supported by Herman Mashaba (leader of the Action-SA) and abandoned by the DA. During its National Elective and Policy Conference in 2020, the DA adopted the Economic Justice Policy which excluded race as a basis for policymaking and implementation. In a racially based unequal society such as South Africa, in redressing the injustice of the past, race-based policies take centre stage for many South African voters.
In this regard, the DA is likely to experience a further downward spiral in the upcoming 2024 general elections. While Ramaphosa’s ascendancy to the ANC and South African Presidency had in the initial stages brought hope for the regeneration of the state of governance in the country, the current political climate shows that the ruling party under his leadership remained an old wine in a new bottle.
The allegations hanging over his head ranging from the Phala Phala saga and Sealed Bank Statements of the name of individuals who are alleged to have funded his 2017 ANC National Conference which culminated with his rise to the Presidency, have raised a lot of questions and reservations against his leadership, and that of the ANC.
Recently, a report by the Independent Panel tasked to conduct a preliminary enquiry on whether the President had a case to answer which could lay a basis for the parliamentary impeachment process under Section 89 found “that the President may have committed:
A serious violation of sections 96(2)(a). 264.2. A serious violation of section 34(1) of PRECCA. 264.3. A serious misconduct in that the President violated section 96(2)(b) by acting in a way that is inconsistent with his office” among others.
As the ANC held its 55th National Elective and Policy Conference and announced the top seven winners this week (19 December 2022), a splinter party is expected to emerge after the conference. Among other things, the foreseeable re-election of Ramaphosa as the party President amid his purported exception from the ANC Step Aside Rule, will spark a breakaway and the formation of a new party by the proponents of the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) policies.
A glance at the political atmosphere within the ANC mirrors that the RET-aligned members are of the view that Ramaphosa’s administration is not implementing the policies adopted at the 54th ANC National Elective and Policy Conference held in 2017. Considering the above developments, South Africa is heading toward a national coalition government after the 2024 General Elections.
At the heart of the drivers of that foreseeable coalition government is the declining support of the ANC and the pro-poor policies championed by its rival political parties. The RET-aligned splinter party will generate support through (championing) abandoned pro-poor policies such as the expropriation of land without compensation and nationalisation of the South African Reserve Bank. On the other hand, the issue of immigration will split the votes between the growing EFF, Patriotic Alliance, and ActionSA.
Moreover, the DA is unlikely to regain the support of the Whites who have defected to the Freedom Front Plus because the latter organisation has held a clear anti-affirmative-action stance for many years, while the DA has only changed the tune recently after losing support. Equally, the ANC’s support will decline further as South Africans continue to experience a high unemployment rate and poor service delivery attributed to poor governance and corruption in the public sector administered by leaders from the party.
Given the decline in public trust and confidence in the ruling party along with the leadership bankruptcy within the ANC, many South Africans will vote for opposition parties. The latter should be understood in the context that there is an admission amongst the ANC echelons that, despite his corruption scandals, Cyril Ramaphosa is the only trusted leader that can renew the ANC.
A case in point is a decision taken by the ANC National Working Committee calling for the party Members of Parliament to vote against the adoption of the Section 89 Independent Panel Report.
In this instance, the rigorous political contestation will see the limping ANC declining to below 50%+, while its rival opposition parties will reach the support of the below 50%+ mark required to govern. Hence SA will be governed by a national coalition of a government negotiated by political parties after the 2024 General Elections.
Dominic Maphaka is a Junior Research Intern at the Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation
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