As South Africa weighs its options, it will likely be guided by its enduring principles, a desire for stability, and a steadfast focus on maintaining its independence on the international stage, writes Bayethe Msimang.
By Bayethe Msimang
This weekend marks a pivotal moment as Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister visits South Africa, igniting significant diplomatic discussions both domestically and internationally.
Amid its ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine seeks to bolster alliances, sparking speculation about the objectives of this South African visit. Observers suggest that Ukraine might press South Africa to reconsider its restrictive arms export policies or to take a clearer stance on the conflict. For Pretoria, with its legacy of non-alignment, this visit represents a complex diplomatic test.
A focal point of this visit is Rheinmetall, a German defence contractor with substantial European ties.
Reports suggest Ukraine’s interest in securing ammunition from Rheinmetall may necessitate changes to South Africa’s export policies. Historically, South Africa has upheld strict arms export regulations, particularly to conflict zones, reflecting its commitment to peaceful resolutions. Any relaxation of these restrictions would signify a major shift, raising profound ethical, diplomatic, and legal questions.
South Africa’s post-apartheid foreign policy of non interference and respect for sovereignty is now under unprecedented strain.
Although no specific requests have been confirmed by Ukrainian representatives, the potential appeal to ease arms restrictions could challenge South African leaders to rethink their longstanding non-aligned stance.
Adding complexity to the diplomatic scenario, John Steenhuisen, leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), has emerged as a vocal advocate for Ukraine. His stance represents a stark departure from the African National Congress (ANC)-led government’s policy of non-alignment. Recently, Steenhuisen criticized President Cyril Ramaphosa, asserting, “Putin is your ally, Mr. President, not South Africa’s.” These comments underscore the internal divisions within South Africa’s political landscape regarding its international alliances.
Should Steenhuisen meet with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, it would underscore the DA’s proactive approach, signalling to both domestic and international audiences that South Africa’s stance is not monolithic. Although it remains speculative whether discussions will cover economic or political cooperation, Steenhuisen’s previous advocacy suggests he could propose issues like agricultural partnerships or economic alignment, aligning with the DA’s broader vision favouring closer ties with Western interests.
The ANC’s allegiance to Russia stems from the anti-apartheid era, when the Soviet Union supported liberation movements across Southern Africa.
This bond has influenced the ANC’s foreign policy, making it reluctant to condemn Russia amid current geopolitical tensions. For the ANC, neutrality is not merely a diplomatic strategy but a historical loyalty to a nation that supported South Africa in its darkest times.
This loyalty places South Africa in a precarious position as the global rift between Western allies and Russia widens. The ANC’s balancing act aims to maintain South Africa’s sovereignty and promote peaceful diplomacy. However, this stance has faced criticism from Western nations and domestic factions who argue that non-alignment inadvertently supports Russia.
While Ukraine has not officially disclosed its agenda for the South African visit, analysts suggest it seeks support beyond military cooperation. Understanding South Africa’s non-aligned policy, Ukraine might focus on cultivating diplomatic goodwill or economic collaborations. Additionally, Ukraine’s interests may extend to engaging strategically important African nations for its international alliances.
South Africa, as a key economic and diplomatic player on the continent, has significant influence in shaping Africa’s foreign policy. If Ukraine successfully courts South Africa or other influential African nations, it could alter perceptions and alliances across the continent, potentially recalibrating Africa’s engagement with the global conflict.
As global calls for nations to take sides in the Ukraine-Russia conflict intensify, South Africa finds itself in a delicate balancing act. Its commitment to non-alignment allows it to serve as a mediator, a role that has bolstered South Africa’s international peacekeeping credibility. Yet, as Ukraine, Western powers, and domestic critics push for a definitive stance, South Africa’s neutral policy faces increasing challenges.
Adopting a firmer stance could open new diplomatic avenues with Western allies and Ukraine, potentially yielding economic and trade benefits. Conversely, abandoning neutrality risks alienating Russia, a longstanding ally, and could fracture the ANC’s political base, which includes supporters who view Russia as an ideological partner. Any shift in foreign policy might also impact South Africa’s leadership within non-aligned movements globally, particularly its influence in BRICS and African Union structures.
The Foreign Minister’s visit comes at a time when South Africa’s position on the global stage is under intense scrutiny. A shift towards Ukraine would signify a profound transformation in its foreign policy doctrine, affecting relationships with both Western and Eastern blocs. Yet, for now, South Africa’s government remains stead fast in its commitment to neutrality, prioritizing diplomacy and peace building.
As South Africa navigates these pressures, the outcome of this diplomatic engagement could set a precedent for its future foreign policy trajectory. By adhering to its principles of non-alignment, South Africa can continue to offer a unique mediating voice in global conflicts, preserving its sovereignty and commitment to peaceful resolutions.
Archbishop Desmond Tutu once said: “If you want peace, you don’t talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.”
This visit serves as a reminder of the intricate, intertwined relationships that define South Africa’s global role. Pretoria’s response to Ukraine’s overtures could either reaffirm its commitment to non-alignment or herald a shift towards a more active stance in international conflicts. As South Africa weighs its options, it will likely be guided by its enduring principles, a desire for stability, and a steadfast focus on maintaining its independence on the international stage.
* Bayethe Msimang is an independent writer, commentator and political analyst.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.