The ANC celebrates its 113th birthday in the Western Cape this week at a time when the party is not only deeply divided, but its support has also shrunk tremendously over the last few years.
The ANC's performance in the 2024 elections forced it into a grand coalition with the DA—a party to which it is ideologically opposed—under the thinly veiled guise of a government of national unity.
The last time a government of national unity governed in South Africa was in the transitionary phase post the 1994 elections. Before that election, the ANC celebrated its 82nd anniversary, the speech delivered by Nelson Mandela, who would go on to lead the country through the transition to democracy.
During the 1994 January 8 statement, Mandela pleaded for unity, participation in the democratic process, and a commitment to the transition to democracy. Mandela urged members of the ANC to work together towards nation-building and the reconstruction of South African society.
"In this year of liberation," Mandela said, "the people of South Africa must insist that the new government will only earn their trust and respect if it engages in a serious and determined programme to end this general crisis by returning our country to all its people so that we can truly say that South Africa belongs to all who live in it, both black and white."
Mandela envisioned a future South Africa that would benefit all its citizens, in stark contrast to the injustice of apartheid.
"Furthermore, steps will have to be taken so that our country’s resources are allocated and distributed in such a way that we can begin to end the racial disparities in terms of the distribution of wealth, income and opportunity."
His closing rallying cry was that 1994 would be marked as the Year of Liberation for South Africans.
"On our banners are inscribed the glorious words and the inviolate covenant – the people shall govern!
"Now is the time for this noble objective to be fulfilled. Now is the time that we make a decisive break with the past. Now is the time that we join forces as South Africans to make our country free at last.
"As this historic year begins, let all our thoughts and actions celebrate this as the Year of Liberation for all South Africans."
In 2025, just shy of 31 years since the dawn of democracy the ANC finds itself in a state of shambles under the feckless leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa, who in 2017 promised a "new dawn".
There are many similarities between the call Mandela made to members of the once-glorious liberation movement the ANC once was, and what Ramaphosa is likely to present to the gathering at the Mandela Park Stadium in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, on Saturday, January 11.
Like in 1994, the January 8 statement will likely focus on unity within the ANC and the broader society, particularly as the party addresses internal factionalism and declining public support.
Ramaphosa will likely emphasise political stability and harmonious coalition dynamics in the face of the ANC's electoral challenges and South Africa's evolving political landscape.
While in 1994, Mandela urged South Africans to participate in the democratic process and take ownership of the country's transformation, Ramaphosa will similarly call on South Africans to play an active role in rebuilding trust in governance and to contribute to the country's recovery from economic and social challenges.
Corruption and service delivery are likely to be themes Ramaphosa will echo from Mandela's 1994 statement.
The difference is that in 1994, the ANC carried the hopes of a nation. It enjoyed the support of the people.
In 2025, at the occasion of the ANC's 113th anniversary celebrations, Ramaphosa may preach unity while the very existence of the GNU threatens to tear the ANC apart.
Ramaphosa may call on South Africans to be active citizens in the rebuilding of South Africa after the ANC wasted 30 years of governance, overseeing the decline of service delivery, and the widening of inequality.
He may call for clean governance and an end to corruption while still under the dark clouds of Marikana and Phala Phala.
Cyril Ramaphosa doesn't have a leg to stand on.
We have been witness to the slow and steady demise of a once-proud liberation movement, evidenced by the ANC's choice of venue for the celebration of its 113th birthday—a 22,000 seater venue in a suburb of Cape Town marked by poverty, surrounded by ganglands, and suffering from the same glaring lack of service delivery the bulk of the city's poor face daily.
Perhaps this is a show of force from the ANC? Hosting a birthday celebration in the Western Cape, the jewel in the crown of its grand coalition bedfellows the DA? If so, then why not book out the Athlone Stadium? Maybe the ANC was concerned it would be unable to fill the 34,000-seat venue?
If there are logistical failures and traffic headaches, or, God forbid, incidents of violence, it would be easier to shift blame to the DA-run municipality.
Is it perhaps a show of unity between the ANC and the DA? If so, then why not host the celebration at the 55,000-seater Cape Town Stadium?
Whatever the reasoning, Ramaphosa will no doubt use the ANC's 2025 January 8 celebration to try to patch up the holes in the party's sinking ship by harking back to Mandela's rallying cries of 1994, but his leadership of the party has left much to be desired.
Those rallying cries will not be well-received. The ANC's support base has been severely eroded—either by members seeking a more closely-aligned revolutionary home in the MK Party or EFF, or by those becoming so disillusioned that they have abandoned their democratic will entirely.
One thing is for certain: it is not Cyril Ramaphosa who will be able to foster unity through any sort of plea at the January 8 ANC birthday celebrations in Cape Town on Saturday.
* Lance Witten is the Editor of IOL.
