Pretoria - Eskom’s load shedding stages might have dropped to stage 3, but there is no assurance that the levels will remain low, especially with the forecast of a tough winter period for the rest of June, July and August.
This was the sentiment expressed by the chairperson of the National Rationalised Specifications Association of South Africa, Vally Padayachee.
He was briefing the National Press Club in Pretoria on “the further risk mitigation of the possibility of going into an electricity blackout situation and collapsing the SA national electricity grid in a state of power system emergency” yesterday in Pretoria.
Padayachee said the risk of a national blackout has a low likelihood of materialising, given operating protocols and protection systems in place.
The operating protocols included the existence of an Eskom system operator charged with implementing any intervention it deems necessary to ensure the stability of the power system in terms of the grid code.
Padayachee said: “However, should a national blackout materialise, the impact on the country would be severe, impacting critical sectors of society and the economy, including personal and occupational safety, water supply and sewage systems, telecommunications and transport infrastructure, and even national security.”
Regarding the possibility of advancing into higher load shedding stages owing to anticipated cold spells, he said: “Eskom may be forced to migrate to higher levels of load shedding beyond stage 6, let alone beyond stage 8, given the generally poor state of the Eskom grid, especially Eskom generation.”
He also made mention of the probability of South Africa transitioning into an El Niño state in the 2023-24 summer season.
“The impact of this on electricity demand is not known. There is talk, however, of possible soaring temperatures and reduced rainfall in Southern Africa,” he said.
He said migrating to a “blackout situation” and a potential national grid collapse was technically not impossible, “but it is virtually not probable at all”.
He reiterated that the system operator has in place plans tested “successfully regularly, which is, in fact, a grid code requirement”.
“It is also very important that higher stages of load shedding does not mean we get closer to blackout. It means our electricity utility members, especially Eskom, are in control of the network and keeping it stable.
“Lastly, blackouts – also critically important – are not caused by lack of generation capacity but by unexpected sudden events on the transmission network that cascades and eventually results in generators protecting themselves by separating from the network. Usually, it is because of extreme weather events,” Padayachee said.
The country’s electricity infrastructure, he said, was exposed to a variety of potential threats and vulnerabilities, such as generation, transmission and distribution plant and control systems failures. Other threats included extreme weather incidents, the impacts of climate change, wilful damage to electricity infrastructure, the impact of a sequence of unforeseen events and potential failure of barriers and protection systems and electricity constraints.
He said electricity constraints were due to infrastructure capacity shortages and disruptions to critical resources, such as coal, gas, and liquid fuel.
Pretoria News