Brace for the worst as electricity demand rises next week

As major commercial industries resume operations this week, there are fears that Eskom might be unable to meet the anticipated energy demand and ramp up load shedding.

Power and energy expert and former Eskom executive manager Vally Padayachee said that from next week the energy demand was expected to increase and load shedding might go to Stage 7 or beyond.

But he cautioned that this would not lead to a blackout as it would take long to get to that point.

Currently, Eskom has load shedding scheduled up to stage 8 which leaves customers with three four-hour long power cuts per day, meaning 12 hours of no electricity.

“We are sitting on a knife edge. We need new forms of energy generation which will put an additional 4000MW to 6000MW on the grid,” said Padayachee.

He also believed that the power utility was not able to improve its current Energy Factor Availability (EAF) which was just below 50% in December to levels of between 70% and 75% in order to stop load shedding.

EAF is the percentage of the maximum energy generation that a plant is capable of supplying to the electrical grid - a factor that has troubled Eskom given the breakdowns at generating units that led to stage 6 power cuts earlier this week.

Padayachee said the once world leading performing power utility was now suffering from "chronic poverty of leadership, electrons, energy capacity, money and poverty of soul“.

Padayachee, who was also a Johannesburg City Power executive said: “We don’t have a load shedding crisis, but rather a national energy security crisis characterised by a supply crisis and evidenced by intense load shedding.”

“Eskom will never go back to the high performing levels seen in the 90s and early 2000s. But the utility’s leadership needs to lead, manage and fix the generation problems.“

Some of the primary reasons for the current state of Eskom have been attributed to lack of generation capacity coming on stream, historical neglect of the ageing power plants, corruption and incidents of sabotage.

On Thursday the energy regulator, Nersa announced that it had granted Eskom an 18.65% tariff increase from April 1, and a further 12.74 increase in 2024.

The increases were on condition that Eskom improved its EAF to 65% and to reduce its reliance on open-cycle gas turbines to 6% of load.

The decision has angered many people who were faced with rising fuel and food prices.

“As an end user I am absolutely disgusted with the increase. It's coming at a time when the economy is down and we are getting poor service from Eskom,“ added Padayachee.

“But on the other hand Nersa was in a rock and a hard place as the state cannot let Eskom collapse. The tariff increase is high but it's less than the 32% Eskom asked for.“

He also said the decision to move Eskom to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) made “good policy and governance” sense as Eskom played a key role in the national energy security value chain.

Padayachee further stated that he supported this move as long as the department implemented effective and appropriate policies and regulations that ensured that Eskom continued to also play an effective in ensuring the country’s energy security was guaranteed.

“Given the crisis situation we are in, I support the move to have Eskom under the department which makes policy,” said Padayachee.

However, political analyst Sandi Swana believed the move was motivated by a political desire of the ruling party, the ANC, to interfere with the running of Eskom once more.

The department’s political, Minister Gwede Mantashe, has been a staunch support of coal and the role he believes it still had to play in the country’s electricity generation despite calls for a reduction on the reliance on fossil fuels.

“Eskom has been operating as a complete business unit for a long time. If it’s moved to DMRE this could create a conflict of interest as Minister Mantashe regulates the coal mining sector which wants to sell coal as fast as possible. Now Eskom is the customer - that will put Mantashe in a terrible situation,“ he said.

“If Eskom is moved to DMRE there will be political intervention. The ability of the CEO and the board to run the utility will then be limited,” Swana believed, adding that if the government was “serious enough” about turning Eskom around it would have done so without the proposed move.

“For me, this is all dance for the rain to come. The move will add no value.”

Swana said he expected opposition to the move.

“All the government needs is to support Eskom with what is needed to improve its performance including finding the right leaders and required expertise and skills.“

On Saturday the City of Cape Town warned consumers to use water sparingly as load shedding affected water supply operations, especially for high-lying areas where water needs to be pumped to get to properties.

The City said areas such as Somerset West region, parts of Kraaifontein, Simon’s Town and Hout Bay are at risk of low water pressure during high stages of load shedding.

Weekend Argus