Cape Town - Two demographers from University of Cape Town (UCT) have identified serious issues and expressed concerns about the reliability of the 2022 population census.
Professor Tom Moultrie and Emeritus Professor Rob Dorrington from UCT’s centre for Actuarial Research (CARe), said the undercount in the census was as high as 31%, the highest they had ever come across in the world.
“Despite adjustments made for the undercount, the census results, in October 2023, present numerous anomalies, making them more estimations than exact counts.”
These anomalies, they said, challenged not only the accuracy of the census data but also their utility for critical functions such as resource allocation, investment planning, and public policy decision-making, potentially leading to the misallocation of resources and ineffective policies..
In their findings it said the national population, after adjusting for the undercount, may have been overestimated by about one million people or nearly 2%.
“Significant overestimates exist in the Indian/Asian and white population groups, with undercounts exceeding 60%. A marked undercount of children aged 5 remains, even after adjustments. Inconsistencies are found in national and provincial population estimates by age, sex, and population group.”
The researchers added: “Discrepancies exist in population estimates at district and municipal levels compared to other data sources, including mid-year population estimates and voter rolls from local government elections. Anomalies in adjustments for the undercount imply a false sense of certainty in the final population estimates.”
However, Statistics SA said the CARe report was unfounded and misleading.
“Stats SA is dedicated to upholding standards of data accuracy ensured by quality checks at every stage of the census process from data collection to fieldwork monitoring,” it said.
“The Post Enumeration Survey (PES) is a quality control measure consistently applied in all democratic censuses.”
According to the data Post-enumeration Survey (PES) 2022, the estimated South African population, including those in collective living quarters, transients and the homeless, was 62.0 million persons on the Census 2022.
Darren Bergman, DA member in the portfolio committee on planning, monitoring and evaluation, said the supposed undercount affected planning widely and could not be relied on when delivering services.
“We just debated Statistics SA today. I have raised concerns around the 19.4% vacancies; the 30% cut in budget and the fact that in casual focus groups it has been noted that people were not approached for the Census,” he added.
“Therefore we have expressed major doubt at the reliability of the Census data and called for automation and advancement in turn-around times.
“It is doing no department any justice for us to rely on data that is delayed, procedures that are not open and transparent, and reports not reaching the relevant ministries for serious reflection.
“We have called for Statistics SA to come and have a proper presentation to our committee soon and deal with our concerns.”