Labour market shifts in South Africa: What the latest data reveals about unemployment

South Africa’s labour market is showing subtle signs of movement, but structural barriers to employment persist, a reality underscored by recent labour force data and highlighted by political controversy over unemployment.

Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), which tracks the same individuals across consecutive quarters, shows that employment retention has weakened slightly over the past five years.

In 2019, “almost everyone who was employed in the third quarter, 94.0% to be exact, was still employed in the fourth quarter.” By 2024, that figure had dipped to “91.8%,” a modest decline of 2.2 percentage points that signals growing labour market mobility.

Among those not economically active, the trend is similar. In 2019, “90.7% stayed in that category between Q3 and Q4, compared to 89.0% in 2024.” For the unemployed, the change is even more noticeable: “74.2% remained unemployed between the two quarters in 2019, while in 2024, that number fell to 72.8%.” These figures highlight that while retention remains high, movement within the labour market is slowly increasing.

The QLFS data reveals clear patterns in who finds employment. People with prior work experience had “a much better chance of finding a job in 2024, 9.8% compared to 2.6% for those without experience.”

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula recently called for the requirement of experience to be scrapped for entry-level work to give graduates an opportunity to get jobs. He said requiring experience meant that many young people were shut out of the job market even before their careers began.

Education also plays a key role: “those with a tertiary qualification saw a 7.5% transition rate, while those without matric managed only 4.8%.”

Age and gender disparities are also evident. Youth had “a transition rate of 4.3%,” and women “4.6%, both lower than adults (7.3%) and men (6.5%).” Duration of unemployment remains a major factor: people in short-term unemployment had “a 17.5% chance of transitioning into employment in 2024, compared to just 7.4% for those in long-term unemployment.”

Regional and sectoral differences further shape employment prospects. Retention rates vary across provinces, with the Western Cape, which leads with 93.9% of employed individuals retaining their jobs, while the Free State had the lowest retention rate at 87.8%.

North West recorded “the lowest transition rate at 4.4%.” Workers on permanent contracts were far more likely to stay employed than those on limited or unspecified contracts, while low-skilled workers faced the highest risk of leaving employment at 12.3% in 2024, followed by semi-skilled workers at 8.2%, compared to 2.8% for skilled workers.

The labour force data comes against a backdrop of political heat following comments by African National Congress (ANC) national chair Gwede Mantashe, which drew widespread criticism.

In a recent televised interview, Mantashe suggested that some unemployed South Africans have become too dependent on the state. He said citizens should not “sit in the sun and expect the state to deliver,” calling for a shift toward a more “active society.”

The remarks sparked immediate backlash. ANC Youth League president Collen Malatji called the comments “detached from reality,” saying many young people are locked out of the labour market long before they have the opportunity to compile a CV.

Opposition voices also criticised the framing as insensitive to the structural barriers, slow economic growth, high unemployment, and limited opportunities  that constrain jobseekers.

The QLFS data underscores that labour market success depends heavily on structural factors. As Statistics South Africa notes, “people with prior work experience had a much better chance of finding a job,” while low-skilled and long-term unemployed individuals face the greatest hurdles.

These numbers suggest that advice alone  to “apply for jobs”, will not significantly alter employment outcomes without broader economic, educational, and regional interventions.

THE MERCURY