Gold hits new high as it surges past $5,000 - but how much further could it climb in 2026?

The price of gold surged past the $5,000 mark (R80,105) for the first time ever on Monday, amid global economic uncertainty and recent market interventions in Japan, which have driven up ‘safe haven’ demand.

The Japanese yen surged on Monday after reports that Japanese authorities and the US Federal Reserve were in discussions over the currency, signalling possible market interventions. This heightened global financial uncertainty is one of the drivers prompting investors to buy gold as a safe-haven asset.

Also thanks in part to a weaker US dollar, gold hit a new peak of $5,111.07 on Monday, while silver also spiked above $109, AFP reported. Gold has risen by more than 15% since the beginning of 2026, and in 2025 it rose by around 64%.

The rush to safe havens has seen these precious metals hit numerous record highs of late, with traders largely spooked by geopolitical concerns, including US President Donald Trump’s recent warnings to Iran and the invasion of Venezuela earlier this year.

"Over the past few days, gold's price action has been textbook safe-haven behaviour," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com.

"Underlying demand for protection is still there. Confidence in the dollar and bonds look a bit shaky."

According to Rylan Chase, a market analyst at ECB Financial Group, gold is also being supported by consistent buying from the central banks, and this is no longer a “side story”.

But how high can gold go?

Goldman Sachs is now predicting a gold price of $5,400 by the end of 2026, which is up from its previous estimate of $4,900.

“A move to $5,400 is not a casual call, but it is now part of the mainstream debate because at least one major bank has published that target for year-end,” Chase said.

“Goldman's central argument is that demand has broadened and that central-bank buying remains structurally strong. 

“If gold is already above $5,000 in January, the market will now focus on whether demand stays intense enough to keep prices elevated rather than mean-reverting lower,” Chase added.

He said gold could plausibly reach $5,400 if the US dollar remains weak, central banks keep buying heavily, private investment demand (ETFs, options) grows, and risk-off headlines sustain safe-haven demand.

However, Chase added that gold’s rally could slow if geopolitical tensions ease, real yields rise, or the Fed signals fewer interest rate cuts than expected.

Independent market analyst Ross Norman said the rally currently shows few signs of fading.

“The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that’s playing very much into gold’s hands.”

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