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Currency volatility impact: the rising cost burden on rural and lower-income homes

Given Majola|Published

How buyers approach the market is being shaped by cost-of-living pressures, especially among first-time buyers and those entering at the lower end.

Image: Leon Nicholas

Lower-income and rural households will be worst affected by the exchange-rate-driven cost hikes.

The upheaval in South Africa’s energy sector is more than just a pump-price issue; it is a direct reflection of global currency volatility, says Harry Scherzer, CEO of Future Forex.

“Because energy is a dollar-denominated commodity, the intersection of soaring global oil prices and rand unpredictability creates a double-edged sword for the South African economy.” 

Steep price hikes for those with the least disposable income 

He explains that logistics expenses are highest when transporting goods to remote areas, meaning those with the least disposable income face the steepest price increases for foundational necessities like bread and milk. 

“While headline inflation had stabilised around 3% in early 2026, this sudden energy shock, compounded by currency sensitivity, threatens to reverse that progress, placing immense strain on the financial stability of the country’s most vulnerable citizens,” says Scherzer.

Buyer's market approach shaped by cost-of-living pressures 

Cost-of-living pressures are shaping how buyers approach the market, particularly for first-time buyers and those entering at the lower end, says Bradd Bendall, the national head of sales at BetterBond. 

He says while affordability remains a key consideration, many buyers are adapting their expectations and planning more carefully to stay within budget.

A measured pace of activity and price growth for the property market 

If these conditions continue, the market may see a more measured pace of activity and price growth, creating a stable environment rather than a sharp shift, he adds. 

“In the near term, the buyers’ market dynamic is expected to remain, which continues to benefit purchasers by offering greater negotiating power. As global conditions begin to stabilise and inflation remains contained locally, the interest rate easing cycle is expected to gradually regain momentum.”

Many households remain under financial strain

Meanwhile, South African consumers are said to be adjusting their financial behaviour in response to ongoing cost pressures, with TransUnion's Q1 2026 Consumer Pulse Study revealing meaningful shifts in how households spend, save and manage credit. 

While many households remain under financial strain, the findings point to a shift toward more deliberate and considered financial decision-making.

The study found that inflation for everyday goods remains the leading financial concern, cited by 41% of respondents as their top financial worry. 35% of consumers indicated that they expect to be unable to pay at least one of their current bills or loans in full.

Against this backdrop, consumer sentiment remains measured. More than two-thirds (69%) of respondents said they are optimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months, down from 72% in Q4 2025, while 14% expressed pessimism and 17% indicated they are neither optimistic nor pessimistic.

Shift towards more deliberate financial behaviour

“Consumers are not necessarily experiencing financial ease, but they are responding in practical ways to manage pressure,” says Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa.

“What we are seeing is a shift toward more deliberate financial behaviour, where households are actively adjusting spending, prioritising obligations and, where they can, building financial buffers.”

Data from the Wealthbit * 2026 Employee Benefits Report shows the following:

  • 70% of workers in the Middle East and Africa are living from paycheck to paycheck.
  • 38% of South African consumers battled to pay at least one bill in the first quarter of 2025, up from 35% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The South African Reserve Bank puts household debt to income at 62%.
  • 29% of emerging high-income earners have no emergency funds, proving this issue is not confined to low-income earners.

“This high level of financial stress means that a third of your people are not able to absorb financial shocks,” warned Alex Cook, CEO of fintech company Wealthbit.

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