Durban Business Confidence Index positive shift upwards, major Q4 2025 rebound

For the first time since 2022, the Durban business community is speaking in glowing terms about the city’s economic prospects as well as the eThekwini Municipality’s ability to deliver essential services.

The latest Durban Business Confidence Index report, tabled yesterday, reveals that business confidence is on an upward trajectory, while trust in the municipality's service delivery has stabilised, with more business leaders believing that if they lodge service delivery complaints, they will be addressed.

Compiled by the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) Macro-economics Research Unit, the quarterly report examines various economic sectors in Durban, finding that nearly all are displaying increased confidence.

Despite ongoing challenges in service delivery, business leaders are now more assured that their concerns will be attended to by the municipality. The index ranges from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates low confidence, a score of 50 reflects a neutral economic outlook, and a score above 50 signals positive confidence in the economy.

Dr Ntokozo Nzimande from the UKZN Macro-economics Research Unit noted that there is a near consensus among academics and business professionals that the Business Confidence Index (BCI) offers valuable insights into future investment growth due to its predictive capabilities. “After deteriorating for four consecutive quarters, the Durban Business Confidence Index (DBCI) significantly improved in Q4 2025,” he stated. The index rose from 52.12 points in Q3 2025 to 63.38 points in Q4 2025, signalling that six out of ten surveyed business executives are satisfied with current conditions.

A closer inspection of the data reveals significant differences across various sectors of the Durban economy. The manufacturing sector, for instance, continued on a positive trajectory, recording a 15.85% quarter-on-quarter gain in business confidence in Q4 2025.

Meanwhile, the ‘Financial intermediation, insurance, real estate, and business services’ sector saw an impressive 26.38% increase in confidence, rising from 49.36 index points in Q3 2025 to 62.38 points in Q4 2025. This improvement is largely attributed to easing financial market conditions, including a strengthening rand, although risks and uncertainties remain.

In the ‘Transport, storage, and communication’ sector, business confidence increased from 53.64 index points in Q3 2025 to 66.9 points in Q4 2025.

This growth is not surprising, as the fourth quarter coincides with the festive season, which typically enhances optimism in this sector. The report also highlights that business confidence in the ‘Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and personal and household goods’ sector improved by 3.14% in Q4 2025, rising from 57.08 index points in Q3 2025 to 58.87 index points in the following quarter. This increase is partly due to easing economic conditions, including stable price levels and lower interest rates.

In summary, the Durban Business Confidence Index (DBCI) improved by 21.60 points in Q4 2025, rising from 52.12 in Q3 2025 to 63.38 index points in Q4 2025. Compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index surged by 4.35%, suggesting that overall economic conditions are significantly better than they were a year ago.

The report also notes a marked improvement in businesspersons' perceptions of service delivery in Q4 2025. The proportion of respondents who believed that complaints about poor service delivery were not likely to be addressed within a reasonable timeframe declined from 80% in the previous quarter to 66.67% in Q4 2025.

“This improvement in businesspersons’ satisfaction with service delivery in Durban may be partly responsible for the noteworthy enhancement in the City’s Business Confidence Index in the quarter under review,” explained Professor Harold Ngalawa from the UKZN Macro-economics Research Unit.

However, he cautioned that there are still outstanding issues, as surveyed respondents identified environmental management—specifically sewerage, solid waste, and parks—as the worst services provided by the authorities, followed by roads, water, and public safety (police, fire, and ambulance services).

“Electricity remains the least of the service delivery problems facing business people in Durban since the suspension of loadshedding in March 2024,” he said.

EThekwini mayor, Cyril Xaba, said he was encouraged by the report, noting that it underscores the positive work the City continues to do to create an investor-friendly climate.

“It also demonstrates that eThekwini is rising. Importantly, business leaders have commended the improvements in service delivery. We are committed to keeping our foot firmly on the pedal,” said Xaba.

He said the positive sentiments expressed by the business community regarding improved service delivery are supported by several key developments.

“For the first time in five years, all water storage facilities were operating optimally, resulting in a stable water supply in many parts of the city during the festive season. Furthermore, for the first time since the 2022 floods, all bathing beaches were open for swimming during the festive season and beyond. Demonstrating the City’s upward trajectory, Durban has also attracted approximately R50 billion in new investment last year,” he said.

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