Unemployment rate hits 5-year low in Q4 2025, but unions warn of 'seasonal' job gains

The latest decline in South Africa’s official unemployment rate has been met with a wall of scepticism, as opposition parties and industry bodies warn that the 'marginal' improvement masks a deepening structural crisis.

While Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for Q4: 2025 showed the headline rate dipping from 31.9% to 31.4%, critics have been quick to point out that the figures are bolstered by temporary festive season hires and a concerning exodus of discouraged workers from the job market.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) dismissed the decline as a 'statistical illusion' that ignores the reality of those who have simply given up looking for work.

“When people stop actively looking for work, not because they have found jobs, but because they have lost hope, they are simply removed from the official unemployment count. This is not job creation, this is statistical exclusion,” the EFF stated.

The party argued that the “composite measure of labour underutilisation”, which stands at 44.5%, is a far more accurate reflection of the "misery" facing South Africans.

Industry bodies were equally unimpressed. MISA, the Motor Industry Staff Association, warned that the ‘seasonal fluctuations’ of the fourth quarter driven by agricultural harvesting and festive retail sales do not equate to long-term stability.

“South Africa cannot claim that it is creating more jobs when those jobs are only temporary,” said Martlé Keyter, MISA’s CEO: Operations.

“We need permanent, stable employment, not seasonal fluctuations that disappear within months.”

Keyter highlighted a worrying 0.1% increase in youth unemployment (to 43.8%) as a sign that the country remains far from resolving its unemployment crisis.

Echoing these concerns, Free SA spokesperson Gideon Joubert noted that while unemployment technically fell by 172,000, the labour force itself shrank by 128,000 people.

“Part of the reduction in unemployment is explained not by job creation, but by individuals exiting the labour market entirely,” Joubert explained.

“The number of discouraged job-seekers increased by 233,000 in a single quarter. This is a devastating indictment of South Africa’s economic environment.”

However, the Democratic Alliance (DA) spokesperson on Employment and Labour, Michael Bagraim MP, was the outlier in the wave of reactions, claiming the data serves as a 'blueprint' for the rest of the country.

Bagraim pointed directly to the DA-led Western Cape, which recorded the lowest unemployment rate in the country at 18.1%.

“The Western Cape... continues to have the lowest unemployment rate in the country... after creating 93,000 jobs.”

Bagraim also credited DA ministers within the Government of National Unity for specific sector gains, noting that 35,000 construction jobs were created under Minister Dean Macpherson’s “construction site” pledge, while 30,000 agricultural jobs followed record exports under Minister John Steenhuisen.

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