Malema's conviction puts EFF’s future and stability to the test
Economic Freedom Fighters at crossroads as Malema faces jail sentence after firearms conviction
Image: Phando Jikelo/Parliament of SA
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), South Africa’s prominent opposition party, could be on the brink of serious internal turmoil after party leader Julius Malema was found guilty of illegal possession of a firearm and discharging it in public.
Presiding Magistrate Twanet Olivier handed down the verdict on Wednesday, and sentencing has been postponed to January 2026.
The charges relate to an incident during the party’s fifth anniversary celebrations in 2018 in the Eastern Cape province.
The offences carry a minimum sentence of 15 years in prison, placing Malema’s political future and that of the EFF under intense scrutiny.
Malema’s former bodyguard, Adriaan Snyman, who was charged alongside him, was acquitted.
Since its founding in 2013, the EFF has been synonymous with Malema’s leadership and fiery rhetoric. Analysts warn the party may face a significant leadership dilemma with his position now in jeopardy.
Historian Khaya Mthethwa reflected on Malema's unique role within the party.
“Over the years, the EFF has been led almost exclusively by Julius Malema, who has been the most visible and capable leader. Nobody has seriously contested his authority,” Mthethwa said.
“It will be interesting and concerning to see how the party copes if its pivotal leader finds himself behind bars.”
Mthethwa added that the EFF’s ability to overcome internal differences could be severely tested if Malema is sentenced to prison.
“The worst-case scenario is Malema being jailed. That would put the EFF in a very compromising position as the party would have to learn to exist without him.”
Independent political analyst Joe Mhlanga echoed similar sentiments but expressed cautious optimism.
“The party may survive, especially since the verdict can be appealed. This situation might even be leveraged as a political strategy ahead of upcoming local government elections,” Mhlanga explained.
“There’s widespread debate around the timing of the court case, but it dates back seven years. Justice can be slow.”
Mhlanga also noted the possible rallying effect Malema’s conviction could have on his supporters.
“Many people have already voiced displeasure at how the case has been handled. The acquittal of Malema’s associate adds an interesting dimension. The case is far from over; there will be many appeals, and Julius Malema is unlikely to give up without a fight.”
For now, despite the uncertainty, the EFF remains intact. Analysts, however, urge the party to prepare for a future where Malema may be absent.
“The party must begin to position itself beyond the leadership of Julius Malema if it wants to maintain its relevance in South African politics,” Mthethwa concluded.
“The next months and years will be crucial for the EFF’s survival and influence.”
thabo.makwakwa@inl.co.za
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