Ashley Nyiko Mabasa

Listening to this week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) debates has been a sobering exercise, highlighting the deep fractures within South African politics. The rise of populism is undeniable, posing a significant threat to the country’s democratic stability. But populist rhetoric is not the disease—it is merely a symptom of a more profound malaise: a growing disenchantment with democracy itself.

According to Afrobarometer, a staggering 70% of South Africans are dissatisfied with how democracy functions. The frustration stems from a sense of political alienation—seven in ten citizens believe elected officials should prioritize voter concerns over their agendas. This disconnect between the governed and those in power is fuelling resentment, leaving many to question whether democracy is serving their interests at all.

South Africa is not alone in this crisis. Across the world, democratic institutions are losing legitimacy. Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024 underscored a similar pattern in the United States—millions of Americans, feeling powerless and disillusioned, turned to a leader who promised to upend the status quo. This is not just a political crisis; it is a crisis of self-governance. As social fragmentation deepens, people crave belonging, solidarity, and national pride—qualities that feel increasingly out of reach.

Recent election results in both South Africa and the U.S. reflect this growing discontent. The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) securing 14.58% of the vote in South Africa is deeply concerning, given its ties to figures implicated in state capture—an ordeal that drained an estimated R100 billion from the economy. Meanwhile, Trump’s victory was fuelled by grievances over economic decline, rising crime, and urban decay. In both cases, the root cause is clear: economic stagnation and widening inequality are breeding frustration, distrust, and a turn towards populist solutions that offer easy answers but little substance.

The challenge facing South Africa—and democracies worldwide—is not just about countering populism. It is about addressing the fundamental reasons people are losing faith in democracy. Without meaningful political and economic reform, the crisis will only deepen.

The Illusion of Economic Opportunity

For 31 years, South Africa has navigated a democratic journey marred by economic disparity. The gap between economic winners and losers has widened, and political tensions have escalated. Parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have gained traction by appealing to those left behind, yet their policies, despite revolutionary rhetoric, often align with neoliberal market strategies that reinforce existing inequalities.

A persistent narrative from the government suggests that economic success is tied solely to higher education—the belief that "what you earn depends on what you learn." This mantra alienates millions who lack access to quality education and upward mobility. It also reinforces the notion that economic failure is a personal failure rather than a structural issue.

The Role of the Media and Public Discourse

The media has also played a role in deepening the democratic disconnect. The amplification of pessimistic narratives and political fearmongering has suffocated constructive discourse. For example, AfriForum’s international lobbying efforts have often spread misinformation rather than fostering meaningful dialogue. Instead of engaging in substantive debates about the future, political factions remain locked in echo chambers, talking past each other.

Compounding this disillusionment is the deep-seated belief in market mechanisms as the primary driver of public good. This economic dogma has fuelled a technocratic approach to governance that neglects the broader social concerns of ordinary South Africans. In turn, mainstream politics has become increasingly detached from the lived realities of the people, providing fertile ground for populist leaders who exploit frustrations while offering simplistic solutions to complex problems.

The Social Mobility Crisis

South Africa has long comforted itself with the idea that, unlike many European nations, inequality is not an insurmountable issue because post-apartheid policies have theoretically provided equal opportunities for all. However, the reality is starkly different. Intergenerational upward mobility remains significantly higher in European welfare states than in South Africa. Countries such as Germany and Finland have created strong social safety nets—public education, housing, and healthcare—enabling individuals to rise beyond their birth circumstances. In contrast, South Africa’s inequality remains entrenched, with stalled social mobility exacerbating economic frustration.

The statistics paint a bleak picture. Unemployment stands at 34%, with youth unemployment exceeding 70%. The top 0.01%—a mere 3,500 individuals—own 15% of the country’s wealth, while the top 0.1% control 25%. The net wealth of the top 1% averages R17.8 million, while the bottom 50% holds a negative net wealth of R16,000. Against this backdrop, the belief that "hard work alone" guarantees success becomes not only misleading but profoundly demoralizing.

ANC’s Response and Its Political Fallout

Faced with mounting dissatisfaction, the ANC has attempted to reassert its credentials as a centre-left movement through legislative measures such as the BELA Bill, the Expropriation of Land without Compensation Bill, and the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill. These efforts aim to address socio-economic grievances, yet they have not quelled public discontent.

The ANC’s decline from 57% to 40% of the vote in the last election underscores the electorate’s demand for change. The MKP, presenting itself as a radical alternative, capitalized on this sentiment. Beyond economic concerns, it effectively harnessed ethnic mobilization, particularly among Zulu voters in KwaZulu-Natal. The ANC’s failure to recognize the role of social and cultural esteem in political allegiance contributed to its setbacks. While the party focused on economic policies, it underestimated the power of identity politics and the need for recognition and respect within communities.

The Populist Surge and the Future of Democracy

Another major factor behind the ANC’s waning support is its approach to education and employment. By emphasizing higher education as the primary path to success, it inadvertently fostered "credentialism condescension"—the idea that those without degrees are responsible for their struggles. This message alienated many, feeding into both economic and social grievances. The MKP and EFF successfully tapped into this discontent, positioning themselves as champions of the marginalized.

However, what these populist actors fail to acknowledge is that economic rejuvenation must be intertwined with a broader sense of community. National pride, social cohesion, and a collective vision for prosperity are crucial. The ANC has, to some extent, recognized this, leveraging the idea of "building a prosperous South Africa" as a rallying cry as imprinted in the philosophy of national democratic revolution and Democratic Alliance confluence with an idea at some point.

If South Africa is to restore faith in its democracy, the government must invest in local service delivery—improving public schools, healthcare, and transportation. These investments would not only provide tangible benefits but also instil a renewed sense of belonging and purpose. The challenge now is for the country’s leadership to move beyond electoral calculations and commit to genuine, transformative change that addresses both economic and social grievances. Only then can South Africa hope to stem the tide of populism and rebuild trust in democracy.

* Ashley Nyiko Mabasa holds two master's degrees in Economic and Labour Sociology and a Master of Management in Public Policy both from Wits University and is an Executive Manager in the Office of the Deputy Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources and serves as Co-chairperson of the BRICS Youth Council.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.