Magashule still a thorn in Ramaphosa’s side

ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa is poised to retain his position at the party’s 55th national conference if nominations and pronouncements from provinces are to be believed.

So far, five provinces – Gauteng, Limpopo, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal – have pronounced on the candidates they want elected to the party’s top six come December.

Four of the five provincial structures have endorsed Ramaphosa for a second term, with KwaZulu-Natal, the province with the highest number of delegates, pushing for former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize.

However, analysts have warned that a lot could change in the next two months that could derail Ramaphosa’s re-election prospects.

A snapshot of who branches have nominated reveal that a branch in the Western Cape's Dullah Omar region had nominated Ramaphosa for president, while another branch in the West Coast region had gone with Minister of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma.

Ramaphosa has also been nominated by branches in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KZN.

Analysts also said the state of the ANC Women's League and the ANC Youth League made the conference "completely unpredictable“.

Political analyst Professor André Duvenhage said that, while Ramaphosa appeared to be at an advantage, what was unfolding in the background in relation to suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule posed a danger to Ramaphosa's chances of a second term.

"There is a rebellion against Ramaphosa. It has been going on for many years now, and we can see not only Phala Phala but also other cases against him as well. So far, Ramaphosa has the advantage, but many things can change before the end of the year,“ Duvenhage said.

Ramaphosa has received criticism over his failure to report a burglary on his Phala Phala farm in 2020, which has led to Parliament constituting an independent panel to determine whether he has a case to answer.

On Friday, the ANC defended its decision to block calls for the establishment of an ad hoc committee to conduct a probe into the matter, saying there could not be parallel investigations.

Duvenhage said that, if Ramaphosa's critics were successful, ANC treasurer Paul Mashatile was likely to contest the position of president.

Although the provinces had pronounced on their preferred candidates, and nominations continued, Duvenhage said the leadership contest was ultimately up to the branches.

"It is not about anyone else or about what the provinces are saying, and I am not convinced that Ramaphosa commands support at branch level," Duvenhage said.

He said he was reluctant to rule out the possibility of a disgruntled group breaking away after the conference.

Another analyst, Lukhanyo Vangqa, said he anticipated that Ramaphosa would get a second term "unless he does something catastrophic".

“As things stand, we can say that Cyril is going to get a second term, Paul Mashatile has the numbers for deputy president, and Stan Mathabatha also has the numbers to come in as chairperson. The other three positions would have to go to women if they insist on a 50-50 gender split," Vangqa said.

In addition, the Northern Cape and the Western Cape were yet to hold provincial conferences and make pronouncements as a collective.