Members of the ANCWL address the press at Luthuli House, Johannesburg in 2016. Picture: Antoine de Ras
FORMER ministers, a premier and a KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) leader, all men, have put their hands up in the hotly contested race for ANC secretary-general -- but the party’s women’s league is said to likely push for a female candidate for the position.
The race for the assignment has seen former Eastern Cape premier Phumulo Masualle launch a campaign on social media and TV, while some ANC branches in various provinces, including the Western Cape, have nominated former KZN secretary Mdumiseni Ntuli.
Masualle has since been endorsed by the KZN provincial executive committee while Ntuli received a nomination from a branch in the Eastern Cape. Some branches in the Western Cape have also named Ntuli as their preferred candidate.
And former finance minister, Malusi Gigaba, recently threw his hat into the ring stating that he had the right pedigree for the job.
Water and Sanitation Minister Senzo Mchunu is also tipped to run for secretary -general once again after losing to Ace Magashule at the 2017 Nasrec conference.
But analysts have warned that while the men have launched campaigns, they are likely to be sacrificed as part of the party’s 50/50 gender split.
So far the positions of president, deputy president and treasurer have seen a high number of male candidates.
The women tipped for the secretary-general and deputy secretary-general positions are the ANC Women’s League coordinator Gwen Ramokgopa, head of campaigns Nomvula Mokonyane and ANC general manager Febe Potgieter.
Political analyst Lukhanyo Vangqa said Masualle and Ntuli were likely to be sacrificed so the party could adhere to its 50/50 gender policy.
"That position is going to go to a woman. The easiest people to sacrifice would be [Ntuli and Masualle]. They can run, but when those factions meet, they will agree that the 50/50 gender representation must be followed,“ Vangqa said.
Another analyst Prof Sipho Seepe said all the candidates were experienced ANC members who could say they had paid their dues.
"We are talking about people who could have provincial backing but we are also seeing them get support from other provinces. The same applies to Ntuli. He has also been provincial secretary and that means he can also say, ‘I have my own provincial base’. Having a provincial base makes all the difference,“ Prof Seepe said.
He said how the votes were distributed at the conference would come down to slates.
"If the so-called RET has its way, then Masualle could emerge and (Mokonyane) could come in as deputy secretary-general because we can see that she seems to enjoy support in a number of provinces," Seepe said.
However, political analyst Professor Andre Duvenhage, said it was likely that Mchunu could take the position.
"I believe Mchunu is competitive and he could be (ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa's) first choice. If we are looking at the women, I am not sure. You need a strong person in that position. That position is the most influential political position within the structures of the ANC and Ramokgopa and Potgieter are not strong enough. They don’t have the credentials, " Duvenhage said.
He added that the introduction of a seventh position in the ANC could see the ANC still adhere to its 50/50 split policy.